The world of soccer betting has become extremely competitive with the rise of online sportsbooks. Simply relying on your gut feelings or rudimentary stats like goals scored no longer gives you an edge. To beat the bookies and fellow bettors, you need to utilize advanced analytics. One such statistic that has become invaluable is expected goals.
What are expected goals?
Put simply, expected goals measure the quality of a scoring opportunity based on historical data. It estimates the likelihood that a particular shot will result in a goal. An xG value is assigned to every shot. The higher the xG, the more likely it is to be scored. For example, a shot taken very close to the goal will have an xG around 0.7 or 0.8, meaning it has a 70-80% historical chance of being scored. A long-range speculative effort may only have an xG of 0.1 or below. By tallying the xG values for all shots in a match, you can estimate how many goals a team “should” have scored. This allows you to better evaluate attacking and defensive performance. A team that creates lots of high xG chances but fails to convert them may be unlucky rather than lacking in quality. Similarly, a keeper making wonder saves to deny high XG shots may have kept their team in the game through brilliant shot-stopping.
Why xG matters for soccer betting?
The advantage of xG is it accounts for the quality of chances created and allowed, not just the result. Goals can often be misleading. A team could score two goals from their only two shots, while their opponents have 15 shots narrowly missing the target. Simply looking at the 2-0 scoreline would make you think the first team was dominant when XG would show the opposite. As a bettor, having a more accurate gauge of performance allows you to better predict future results. If a team is consistently generating high-quality chances, they are likely to score more goals moving forward. Similarly, if a defense is allowing lots of high XG shots every game, they are probably going to concede a lot of goals unless their keeper continues to play out of his mind. Visit https://165.22.247.89/ for the Livescores.
Leveraging XG Stats and Models for Soccer Bets
Here are some of the main ways you can utilize expected goals to gain an edge with your soccer wagers:
- Compare xG with actual goals scored – Teams that under or overperform their xG totals are likely to see some ‘regression to the mean’ in future games.
- Identify teams creating/allowing high-quality chances – Consistently high or low xG numbers indicate the attack or defense is strong or vulnerable.
- Evaluate the sustainability of runs of form – Outscoring xG suggests a team’s good run may end soon while underscoring it could continue.
- Input for statistical models – Combining xG data with other metrics can build predictive models to estimate match outcomes and probabilities.
- Identify betting value – If the odds underestimate the chances of an outcome your xG model suggests is likely, you have an edge over the sportsbooks.
With the 2022 World Cup on the horizon, expected goals will be vital in assessing the strengths of each country and finding betting value in the futures and individual match markets. The teams able to repeatedly create high-quality chances will likely go far while defensive vulnerabilities could spell early elimination. Crunching the xG numbers will be crucial to soccer betting success.
